Nowadays, the most affecting printer's sensitive nerve, is the price of paper.

Paper price rises in response, from the beginning of September last year. Since the beginning of kraft paper, impact corrugated paper, white cardboard and other packaging paper, and then spread to offset paper, coated paper and other cultural printing paper, turn up, wave after wave, deducing a thrilling round of market.

As of the end of February this year, just a few months, corrugated paper up 60%, kraft paper up 45%, offset paper, coated paper, newsprint up more than 20%. Led by corrugated paper, the biggest increase is corrugated paper and other packaging paper.

"Crazy" is an understatement, but what printers are looking forward to is when the frenzy will slow and the price of paper will stabilise. Into March, one after another came the news that can let the printer a little relieved: domestic waste paper prices began to decline continuously, paper mill inventory pressure continues to increase, some small paper enterprises began to reduce prices... Although the price of big paper mills has not been loosened, but this round of price increases have no long-term basis to continue, gradually become the consensus of paper industry experts and even paper mills. It appears to be a matter of time before the rally eases and stabilizes. The most optimistic estimate is expected to start in April.

Now looking back at the cause of this round of price increases, it can be said that "retaliatory price increases" and "monopoly price increases" the result of the dual wheel drive. "Retaliatory price rise" has its side in line with the law of market economy, after all, paper prices have been depressed for a long time, the cost of paper mill experienced rapid growth after raw material prices, coal prices and transportation prices rose in 2016, and the elimination of backward production capacity, environmental supervision and other measures have reduced the capacity of paper, resulting in changes in the market supply and demand relationship, from oversupply to short supply. However, the "monopoly price hike" fueled by the oligopolistic economy did inject irrational factors into the higher paper prices and increased the atmosphere of panic in the market.

In the eyes of paper veterans, this round of price rises, although thrilling, is not an isolated example, can be described as a decade cycle. In 1995, 2006 and 2017, paper prices rose and fell for three times, and the industry scene was very different after the great waves swept away the sand.

Therefore, we need to think, after this round of paper price boom, what will change?

Most importantly, it will change the industrial landscape. Because we've seen that the shuffle is happening on three levels.

First, paper mills are shuffling. The reduction of production capacity caused by pressure from environmental protection policies is an important reason for this round of price increases, and the fermentation period of environmental protection effects is far from over. Our country already is the first choice paper making, thermal electric power industry takes the lead to implement emission license system, and gets license the big limit is in July 1 this year. It can be expected that due to environmental protection, factor cost rise and other multiple reasons, a large number of small paper mills will quit the stage of history, paper production capacity will be more concentrated.

Second, Indian companies are reshuffling. Paper supply is tight, paper mills classify customers, quality printing paper source more easily guaranteed; Rising paper prices lead to rising printing prices, and large printing companies have stronger bargaining power. Various favorable factors incline to high-quality and large Indian enterprises. In this round of price increase, many enterprises saw a surge in orders, expansion of high-quality customer base and enhanced customer satisfaction, which laid a more solid foundation for subsequent development.

Third, Indian companies are reshuffling their customers. The price increase process is also a good time to rebuild customer relations and eliminate "weak" customers. The marriage between quality companies and quality customers will be closer.

Although the reshuffle at the three levels is tragic, it is a positive construction process for the healthy ecology of the whole industrial chain. For Indian enterprises, how to turn the crisis into an opportunity and develop against the trend while going up and down with the paper price still needs more consideration and sharpening.